Thursday, December 30, 2010

Song Phrases For Tattoos

Application, genetic drift and end of the web as we know it today.

Among the several speeches of the 2010 IAB FORUM MILAN definitely the most interesting, in my view, was to Chris Anderson ( Editor-in-chief, Wired Magazine).
Chris is certainly one of them chews Web, and some of his theories (that the Long Tail for example) are still the pivot around which revolve the alchemy of the Web Marketing
L 'intervention by Chris, whose title was " the Web is Dead" has also appeared on the cover of Wired and was provocative, devastating, or perhaps more likely predictive (yet nothing was known of the descent into the field of Facebook in the mail).

But who or what is killing the web?
The thesis of Chris and simple and unsettling for all who work there and on the web who daily try to perceive the signs of change. Chris says " lords beware because the network is becoming a mere means and not something that evolves as Tim Berners Lee had suggested in 1989 when he invented the Web."
To support his thesis, Chris showed some data on the use of the Internet market Data on U.S. and European market where 'murder evidence is less clear but, as we know, usually within a few years is destined to "inherit" the trends of the new continent.
The graph is shown by Chris and the following is an analysis on the use of the Internet traffic from its birth to today in America.


The red dial is the web understood as "a romantic sense Tim Berners Lee" all the rest are using the Internet services that do not form part of the web (Google Chris called them blind or anything google can not index and thus can not access it in a spray with).
From the graph it is clear that the traffic on all that is "free Web" continues to down in favor of other services that use Internet as platform. " These services take advantage of the evolution and the ubiquity that the Internet Protocol has had in recent years through the development and use of the Web free but have the distinction of being closed, ie they are services aimed at their business model and used only a few devices.
So who are the horsemen of the apocalypse (as Chris called them) that we are announcing the death of the web?
  1. mobile devices but most of them the APPS;
  2. the streaming video (eg, Netflix), the online gaming (eg Microsoft Live or Playstation Network), and the like Itunes
  3. the social network (Facebook first)
These services are creating ever larger communities but increasingly closed. The
Apps available for the platforms Android or apple mobile objects that are working perfectly on the devices for which they were conceived, but which are not accessible from different devices.
The languages \u200b\u200bused are not standard but use the API specifically designed to allow development only on some platforms and that exploit its features.
Facebook is a huge private club that allows you to do just what its APIs let you do the very near future and could be much closer to resemble a huge isolated continent in which everything (access to mail, shopping, movie viewing, etc..) takes place in individual self-reliance.
long time ago (I'm talking about 10 years ago) I wrote an article in a magazine about the Internet (the recovery and post if I can still read the floppy;)). This article sought to show that development languages \u200b\u200bwere born on the Internet for money would follow the lines' Darwinian natural evolution.
The Darwinian theory is summarized in the motto "the most suitable survives," but there are conditions for this to be true, and above all there must be a genetic variation or better broad genetic base on which the development could work.
For me I have a background in biochemistry and biology of the parallelism between Facebook the future and what is called in population genetics "genetic drift" is evident .
Genetic drift can occur in several ways but one of the cases in which it occurs through the principle of the founder : what happens when a population is started from a small number of individuals. Although populations may subsequently grow in size and later counting a large number of individuals, his gene pool is derived from the genes still owned by the founders .
In practice, if the gene pool is minimum (see the Facebook API) the evolution of that population (see the web) will be limited to less of external support.
The risk that I see and Chris guessed before all is a poor Web that is based on a limited development and natural selection because it has a limited gene pool and above all because the whole is dominated by the logic of business and economic models linked to it.

paraphrase Woody Allen
God is dead, the web and even I almost feel so good ...
Until next time, and long life to the Web.

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